Early Warning of Wheat Leaf Rust Disease and Prediction Disease Status Based on the Modeling Weather

Wheat leaf rust (WLR), caused by Puccinia triticina (Pt) is an epidemic disease. The present study was concerned with the epidemiology of WLR disease in Egypt during the 2014/16 growing seasons, in Egypt. To study the effect of climatic factors on WLR incidence; four wheat genotypes were screened against WLR, under field conditions at Kafer El-Sheikh and Beni-Suef governorates. The average daily temperature during the four months of the study was closely related to the development and final rust severity %. The weather data indicated that most of January and February nights of 2014/2015 were relatively cool (min temperature <10°C) at wheat growing areas. There was a big contrast in this regard with January and February of 2015/2016 at Kafr El-Sheikh and Beni Suef, which had relatively warm nights. An epidemic of WLR disease started 10 to 16 days earlier during 2015/2016 rather than 2014/2015. It depends on the favorability of weather conditions such as early warm seasons. Disease infection in wheat crop highly influenced meteorometeorids’ highly influenced logicall factors. The weather-based modeling for early warring disease infestation may provide appropriate tool for investigating and predicting disease status.